The first half of 2022 turned out totally different from what most inventors had anticipated in the beginning of the year – this shows yet again that trying to predict asset prices is everything but an easy exercise.
I this note, we do not aspire to make predictions about the future. Instead, we provide an interpretation of the most recent evolutions in markets that focuses on the observation of cycles of concentration and deconcentration; after a long period of record market concentration, equity market experienced a first mean reversion since the beginning of the year. Even more interestingly, we argue why this first mean reversion still leaves a lot of room for a massive reduction of the still high market concentration.
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